I predict Donald Trump will win the 2024 election and become the 47^th President of the United States. I further predict Trump will win 312 Electoral College votes by winning all seven battleground states — Pennsylvania, Michigan, Wisconsin, North Carolina, Georgia, Arizona, and Nevada. Here is how I arrived at that prediction:

The Veep Factor. Only twice has a sitting vice president been elected president and none since George H.W. Bush in 1988. The people elected Bush because they wanted a third term of the popular Ronald Reagan. Kamala Harris serves as VP under Joe Biden, who currently has a 40% approval rating according to the Real Clear Politics average. People are not clamoring for another Biden term, and that hurts Harris.

The Sharps. As of this writing on the evening of Nov. 4, the RCP betting average stands at 58% for Trump and 42% for Harris. Polls are useful in predicting election results, but we shouldn’t ignore what the bettors, who back their opinions with their money, are thinking. The wise guys look to be solidly in Trump’s corner.

Past Performance. Trump underperformed his polls in both 2016 and 2020. On this day in 2016, Hilary Clinton led Trump by 3.2% in the RCP average of national polls, and Trump won the election. In 2020, Joe Biden was up by 6.9% in the RCP average and beat Trump in an election that was decided by a small margin over a few battleground states. This time Trump is in the best position of his three election attempts and trails Harris by only 0.1% in the RCP average. If pollsters haven’t adjusted for their past errors in polling Trump – and I am assuming they haven’t – Trump looks to be in optimal position.

The Wrong Track. Today’s RCP average for direction of the country shows only 27% think America is heading in the right direction. This would indicate people are ready to try something different.

My Gut. Trump appears to have the momentum heading into election day. This campaign has been run much better than his 2020 campaign, and despite a few unforced errors by the candidate, it has stuck to the message of border control, the economy, and trade. On a personal level, I have seen more Trump signs this year in my deep blue neighborhood than in either 2016 or 2020. I saw an overwhelming number of Trump signs on a visit to the Hudson River Valley in New York. The way the campaigns have behaved over the past two weeks indicate they both believe Trump has an edge. We’ve been hearing about the importance of “vibe” in this election, and it seems that the Trump campaign is giving off good vibes across the country and has reached voters they have failed to connect with in past elections.

The views represented in this article are mine alone.