An Election Prediction

Posted on by Paul Sherman

I predict Donald Trump will win the 2024 election and become the 47th President of the United States. I further predict Trump will win 312 Electoral College votes by winning all seven battleground states — Pennsylvania, Michigan, Wisconsin, North Carolina, Georgia, Arizona, and Nevada. Here is how I arrived at that prediction:

The Veep Factor. Only twice has a sitting vice president been elected president and none since George H.W. Bush in 1988. The people elected Bush because they wanted a third term of the popular Ronald Reagan. Kamala Harris serves as VP under Joe Biden, who currently has a 40% approval rating according to the Real Clear Politics average. People are not clamoring for another Biden term, and that hurts Harris.

The Sharps. As of this writing on the evening of Nov. 4, the RCP betting average stands at 58% for Trump and 42% for Harris. Polls are useful in predicting election results, but we shouldn’t ignore what the bettors, who back their opinions with their money, are thinking. The wise guys look to be solidly in Trump’s corner.

Past Performance. Trump underperformed his polls in both 2016 and 2020. On this day in 2016, Hilary Clinton led Trump by 3.2% in the RCP average of national polls, and Trump won the election. In 2020, Joe Biden was up by 6.9% in the RCP average and beat Trump in an election that was decided by a small margin over a few battleground states. This time Trump is in the best position of his three election attempts and trails Harris by only 0.1% in the RCP average. If pollsters haven’t adjusted for their past errors in polling Trump – and I am assuming they haven’t – Trump looks to be in optimal position.

The Wrong Track. Today’s RCP average for direction of the country shows only 27% think America is heading in the right direction. This would indicate people are ready to try something different.

My Gut. Trump appears to have the momentum heading into election day. This campaign has been run much better than his 2020 campaign, and despite a few unforced errors by the candidate, it has stuck to the message of border control, the economy, and trade. On a personal level, I have seen more Trump signs this year in my deep blue neighborhood than in either 2016 or 2020. I saw an overwhelming number of Trump signs on a visit to the Hudson River Valley in New York. The way the campaigns have behaved over the past two weeks indicate they both believe Trump has an edge. We’ve been hearing about the importance of “vibe” in this election, and it seems that the Trump campaign is giving off good vibes across the country and has reached voters they have failed to connect with in past elections.

The views represented in this article are mine alone.

Inauguration Day 2021

Posted on by Paul Sherman

I just watched the inauguration of Joseph R. Biden, the 46th President of the United States. It was a dignified, peaceful ceremony—unusual in that the current pandemic limited attendance. I thought the new president took the right tone in his inaugural address, as he struck a chord of unity. “I will be president for all Americans,” Mr. Biden proclaimed. In 2021, that is exactly the president America needs.

We live in very divisive times, and the divisiveness didn’t start in 2016. It feels like we’ve been headed in this direction since about 2004, when the sting of 9-11 was wearing off, and the Iraq war wasn’t going so great. The recent US Capitol riot was despicable, horrible, sad, and tragic and felt like the divisiveness was reaching its peak. That event will leave a permanent black mark on US history. 

“We need to end this uncivil war,” as President Biden appropriately remarked in his address. We’re not going to resolve the divisiveness by retreating into our various tribes of like minds. Healing our great divide will take serious people from both sides of the aisle coming together for a common purpose. That purpose is the advancement of liberty, equality, and the values upon which this nation was founded. 

Who will step up?

Reading and Leading

Posted on by Paul Sherman

President Harry Truman purportedly said, “Not all readers are leaders, but all leaders are readers.” I hold a bachelor’s degree in literature and served 26 years as an Army officer. Reading has played a major in my personal and professional development. The power of reading to broaden perspective and enhance understanding has benefitted me greatly, and it certainly can benefit leaders of all backgrounds and professions.

I read a lot of history because I believe that understanding past events can enable better decision-making in both the present and the future. For example, Mark Stoler’s biography of George C. Marshall describes how, as Army chief of staff, General Marshall demonstrated a keen ability to employ leaders based on their specific attributes and abilities long before complex talent management tools existed. Rick Atkinson’s three-volume Liberation Trilogy provides a comprehensive analysis of the Allied lessons learned in World War II from the perspectives of participants at all levels, from the most senior leaders to the most junior soldiers.  Also, leaders desiring to understand the thought processes of a great leader who wrote in crisp, clear, and concise language, should immerse themselves in the Personal Memoirs of Ulysses S. Grant.

War literature exposes me to the perspectives of participants in armed conflict other than my own. Writers like Phil Klay and Kevin Powers have written vivid portraits of the experiences of soldiers and marines in the current conflict. To learn about wartime experiences outside of today’s emotional and politically charged context, I turn to the World War I writings of Siegfried Sassoon and Ernst Jünger or the Vietnam War writings of Tim O’Brien. Additionally, Ernest Hemingway’s The Sun Also Rises is a perceptive literary portrayal of the effects of PTSD and the struggles of war veterans to reintegrate into society.

Reading about subjects they are passionate about can both inform leaders’ professional interests and broaden their perspectives. In recent years, I have become fond of books about professional sports. I have a lifelong passion for sports and enjoy reading about the lives, experiences, and practices of sports figures, particularly accomplished sports executives. Ian O’Connor’s 2018 biography of NFL coach Bill Belichick provides foremost insight into the development of one of the best CEOs in any industry today.

Michael Lombardi’s Gridiron Genius is another excellent depiction of management in professional sports. Lombardi is both a former NFL executive and a great storyteller, who worked for three all-time greats—Bill Walsh, Al Davis, and Belichick—over a long career. The stories he tells of learning from three titans of professional sports can be of great value to leaders in any field.

Effective leaders have a keen understanding of human nature, and classic works are known for their timeless and universal portrayals of the human condition. Some of my favorites include William Shakespeare’s Henry V, Homer’s Iliad, Fyodor Dostoyevsky’s Crime and Punishment, Herman Melville’s Moby Dick, and Ralph Ellison’s Invisible Man. These works have become classics because their authors demonstrated keen perceptions of the struggles essential to human existence. In these pieces, and many others, the authors have struck chords that resonate with people regardless of the times in which they are read. Leaders can benefit from the thoughts and reflections that the classics inspire.

Not all reading has to be serious. Leaders can use reading to relax and escape from the stresses of daily life. I will often read a good mystery or thriller novel for pure enjoyment. I find reading these types of books a good way to clear my mind and relax, especially at the end of a hard day. Some of my favorites are Brad Thor, Harlan Coben, and Nelson DeMille. These authors, through detailed research and expert storytelling, can both broaden perspective and entertain at the same time. And their writing provides more detail than a movie or television show ever could.

Harry Truman understood that broadening perspective through reading was important to being a leader. This is because leaders cannot learn enough about the human condition solely from their own experiences. There is a vast trove of literature out there from which to absorb the human experience. I have only scratched the surface here with some of my favorite works. If leaders immerse themselves in interesting writing, they will learn valuable lessons to fortify their leadership abilities. 

A Life of Service Inspired by a Hometown

Posted on by Paul Sherman

Revised from remarks I gave at a Veterans Day event in Bedford, Virginia, November 11, 2018.

When asked to speak in my hometown of Bedford, Virginia, on Veterans Day, I started reading about the day and its significance. I knew the basics: it originated out Armistice Day, which marked the end of fighting in World War I, on November 11, 1918. (Famously, the armistice was agreed to on the 11th hour of the 11th day of the11th month.) But there were some things about the origins of Veterans Day that I did not know. For instance, in 1938, Congress made November 11 a national holiday called Armistice Day, specifically to honor those who had served in World War I. In the years following World War II, Armistice Day became Veterans Day to recognize all those who have served in military, and for a while the holiday was observed in October. In 1975, President Ford moved Veterans Day back to November 11 to honor the significance of the Armistice on the 11th hour of the 11th day of the 11th month, where it has remained. 

Here are some other facts I learned about Veterans Day:

 – There are approximately 21.3 million living U.S. veterans (as of November 2018)         

– 16.1 million served during at least one war.

 – 7 million served during the Vietnam War

 – 5.5 million served during the Persian Gulf War (Desert Storm).

 – 2 million served during the Korean War.

 – Of the 16 million Americans who served during World War II, approximately 558,000 are still alive.

 – 2 million veterans are women.

Growing up in Bedford was the primary inspiration for my service. From the time I was I old enough to remember, I was fascinated with the story of A Company, 116th Infantry Regiment—comprised solely of Bedford residents—which was one of the first units to land on Omaha Beach on D-Day. Of A Company’s 34 members, 19 were killed on D-Day, proportionately, the most losses suffered by any town on that day.

Like all Bedford natives, I was proud to share a hometown with those heroes from A Company. I was fortunate to have known Roy Stevens, one of the few Bedford Boys who survived D-Day. I have a photo of him and me standing in front of the D-Day Memorial before he passed away, and that photo is one of my most cherished possessions. When the D-Day Memorial was dedicated in 2001, I was stationed in Korea, but I made sure that I made it to that ceremony. I wouldn’t have missed it for the world. 

Throughout my Army career, I’ve been proud to tell the story of the Bedford Boys to anyone who would listen, and when Alex Kershaw’s best-selling book on the Bedford Boys came out a few years ago, I was quite fond of telling those I observed reading the book that the heroes they were reading about were from my hometown. In 2009, while serving a tour at the Pentagon, I was able to attend a Capitol Hill screening of a documentary about the Bedford Boys called “A Town They Left Behind.” I was proud to share this event with the many Bedford residents who made the trip to Washington.

All of this Bedford history and patriotism inspired me growing up, but I also had a great influence inside my own home. My father, Paul Sherman. Sr., enlisted in the Army after graduating from college and served one tour in the late 1950s. Upon completion of that tour in 1959, he took a job as a teacher and head basketball coach at Bedford High School. He took the value of service he learned in the Army and transferred that into service to his community. He spent the next 30-plus years as a coach, teacher, and principal in the Bedford County school system. He also served the community as a youth baseball coach, a baseball umpire, and a basketball official. He touched the lives of Bedford youth for generations.

With all of those examples of service around me, both at home and throughout Bedford, I began to take an interest in military service myself. At some point in high school I started reading about West Point and the more I read, the more interesting it got. I thought about how awesome it would be to say I graduated from the same place as Grant, Lee, Eisenhower, Patton, MacArthur, and so many other contributors to history. Gaining admission to West Point was very difficult. I had to work very hard to maintain top grades and I had to spend many hours preparing for the SAT because I needed a high score on that as well—and standardized tests were never my strong suit. I did all of this while playing three sports at Liberty High School. In the end it all paid off—a good work ethic is a value that I definitely picked up from growing up in Bedford—and I got accepted to West Point. I graduated from high school on June 15, 1989, and went to Myrtle Beach to enjoy my last few days of freedom with my friends. I reported to West Point on June 28, 1989, and my military journey began.

It took every one of my Bedford-learned values to get me through that place. I was feeling confident going into West Point. I had graduated at the top of my high school class, and I was a good athlete. I thought I had it made—until I realized that just about all of my classmates graduated at the top of their high school classes, and that they all were good athletes, many of them great athletes. Then, academics started, and I was exposed to higher level math and science classes, the likes of which I had never seen at Liberty High School. Suffice it to say, my first two years at West Point were a struggle, and I often questioned if I was going to make it to graduation. But at my lowest points, I always came back to those Bedford values. I did not want to let people down who were rooting hard for me to finish. I was determined to graduate. I buckled down, sought extra help from some professors willing to help me out, and I made it through. I graduated on May 29, 1993.

Those Bedford values continued to serve me well throughout my Army career, which spanned 26 years. I spent six years at Fort Bragg and served with 82nd Airborne Division, where I got the opportunity to jump out of perfectly good airplanes, which feels great—until you land, usually with a great big thud.

I spent three years in Korea, which is about 7,000 miles from Bedford but taught me that strong cultural values are not unique to South Central Virginia. I met some kind, generous, and very proud people there.

I have spent a combined total of nine years in the Washington, D.C., area, including seven years working in the Pentagon. I have to say that I have convinced myself of what we Bedford natives have known all our lives—that life in Northern Virginia doesn’t hold a candle to life in Bedford.

I became a combat veteran in 2007, when I deployed to Afghanistan for 15 months as the executive officer (second-in-command) of a 1,000-Soldier battalion. My battalion was responsible for the security of the areas around our base, and one of my duties was to build relationships with the various tribal leaders, police chiefs, and local politicians. I found that the Afghan people aren’t much different than small-town Virginians. They’re hardworking farmers, shepherds, and ranchers. They’re very proud of their local culture and customs, and—above all else—they value their families. I relied on these shared values to relate to the Afghan leaders I worked with, and I was able to forge strong relationships with many of them.

The highlight of my career, however, came when I was stationed in Europe from 2011-2013, and I finally got the opportunity to visit Normandy with my father. What an experience that was to walk on the very beach, where the Bedford Boys landed, knowing they were going to face a wall of steel as soon as they hit the shore. We were impressed that the locals in Normandy are genuinely appreciative of the sacrifices of the A Company men, who gave their lives for the freedom of strangers thousands of miles away. 

Last week, the hosts of a podcast I was listening to on my daily commute were discussing President Franklin Roosevelt’s prayer that he offered the nation upon the D-Day invasion. I was struck by the words:

“…O Lord, give us Faith. Give us Faith in Thee; Faith in our sons; Faith in each other; Faith in our united crusade. Let not the keenness of our spirit ever be dulled. Let not the impacts of temporary events…deter us in our unconquerable purpose.”

FDR was praying for the strength of young men like the Bedford Boys to fight through extreme adversity to defeat a great enemy and literally save the world. The bravery of those men from this small town should inspire us every day. Let us today honor the service and sacrifices of all veterans but remember that all of us merely stand on the shoulders of men like the Bedford Boys, who defended the world and put Bedford and its small-town values on the map.

On Writing

Posted on by Paul Sherman

I trace the foundation of my writing ability to the seventh grade. My language arts teacher that year, Mrs. Miller, ensured that her students developed the proper tools for written communication. We spent considerable time learning to diagram sentences—an exercise in breaking down a sentence into the subject, verb, and other parts of speech that I do not believe is part of the language arts curriculum anywhere these days. It most certainly is not taught in the various school districts through which my kids have passed. Diagramming sentences was tedious work, but I learned early on that I had a certain aptitude for it, much in the way my math-oriented classmates had an aptitude for solving challenging equations. Understanding sentence construction is a critical part of learning how to write, and I credit Mrs. Miller with helping me achieve this understanding at an early age. 

As a way of testing our understanding of sentence structure, Mrs. Miller assigned weekly written compositions. Early each week, she would post several quotations in the classroom. Each student had to pick a quotation and write a five-paragraph essay on the what the quotation meant to him or her. This exercise was my introduction to how to write an argument. Start with an opening paragraph that states the main idea. Support your main idea in the next three paragraphs. Then, conclude with a paragraph synthesizing the main idea and the supporting argument. Every Monday, students brought their completed essays to class. Mrs. Miller would select a few students to read their work in front of the class. After grading the essays, she would display some she deemed outstanding in the classroom for all to read. I found that writing these essays came naturally to me, and I enjoyed doing them—definitely more than I enjoyed solving math problems or studying for science tests. Little did I know then that mastering grammar and learning how to write a five-paragraph essay would prove beneficial for years to come.

In high school, my teachers exposed me to some of the great works of English literature—To Kill a Mockingbird, The Scarlett Letter, The Great Gatsby, Invisible Man, and the works of Shakespeare among them. These teachers encouraged me to think deeply about what I was reading and to use the foundation of writing I had developed in elementary school to express my thoughts coherently. I found that this writing process came naturally to me, and that I had developed a fondness for it.

I went to college at West Point, where I decided to major in literature. My grade school and high school teachers had prepared me well for this experience. While I found myself unprepared for West Point’s rigorous math and science curriculum compared to many of my peers, I recognized early on that I was very well prepared for the literature curriculum. I had several excellent professors who helped me hone my skills at constructing written arguments. The most challenging writing assignments were the shortest. A common exercise, for example, would be to read one of Shakespeare’s plays and write a two-page essay on a specific aspect of the play. This type of assignment was challenging because it required being thrifty with words. Every sentence had to have a specific relationship to the main idea. Completing these assignments developed a keen editing ability. I still remember first drafts of these assignments being almost three pages and having to write—and re-write—until I had pared my argument down to the two-page limit with not one wasted word. 

West Point has a core curriculum English course during the third year, the purpose of which was to prepare Cadets to write effectively as future Army officers. The final exam—actually the only graded work—for this course was a timed essay, which we had to write in a five-paragraph format. Mrs. Miller would have been proud of me, as I breezed through the essay and earned one the easiest A’s I ever received. I might have even snickered a bit at some of my classmates, who could run circles around me in physics class, but struggled to pass this writing exam. 

The highlight of my West Point career was winning the Thompson Memorial Award, which recognizes outstanding writing across the curriculum. A faculty panel chose my submitted writing portfolio as the best among dozens of my classmates. I still have my notification letter, signed by the head of the English department, explaining that “[t]he evaluators were particularly impressed with [my] clear and direct style,” just the style I had worked so hard to perfect. Winning this award was my greatest accomplishment at West Point, and I graduated with supreme confidence in my aptitude for written communication. I felt prepared to be an Army leader.

In my first Army assignments, I began to hone the skill of Army writing. This meant being succinct with the main point up front—leaders do not want to waste their valuable time reading any more words than necessary. I found this style fairly easy to adapt, as it was very similar to the clear, concise style I had mastered at West Point. Also, as an admirer of the minimalist writing style of Ernest Hemingway, I found that writing in the preferred Army style came to me rather easily. My bosses also seemed to appreciate my short and to-the-point emails, when some of my peers insisted on writing volumes. At military schools that expect thinking and writing at a graduate level, and where many of my peers struggled, I always excelled. 

Upon retirement from the Army in 2019, I vowed to write more. That is why I opened this space. I have a talent, and I want to use that talent to tell my story. I will use this space to continue what Mrs. Miller taught me all those years ago—to express myself in a clear and positive way. I hope we all can learn something from the experience.